Jake Ferguson: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Jake Ferguson averaged 8.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a TE13 draft slot was worth, so the July 2026 price read roughly in line with the production. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 137.7 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 145 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 8.7 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +0.8 | nflverse |
| Target share | 16.5% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 8.9% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 97 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
Jake Ferguson was drafted as the TE13 — ADP 137.7 — in July 2026. His 8.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the TE starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- adp 137.7
- adp_rank 145
- search_rank 97
- ppg 8.7
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
Strong pick if you believed…
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Jake Ferguson's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
8.9% last 3 vs 16.5% season (2025) · as of July 2026
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Jake Ferguson's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+0.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor pick if instead…
-
Jake Ferguson's target share is fading from the season baseline
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
8.9% last 3 vs 16.5% season (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Jake Ferguson's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+0.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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This page is the July 2026 draft-day read. The AI assistant weighs Jake Ferguson against your scoring, your roster, and this week's matchup instead.
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