Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Dallas Goedert or Jake Ferguson?
Dallas Goedert was the stronger 2025 producer — 10.3 vs 8.7 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 130 vs 137.7). That gap was the draft-day case for Dallas Goedert.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Dallas Goedert | Metric | Jake Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| 130 (TE12) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 137.7 (TE13) |
| 133 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 145 |
| 10.3 | Fantasy points / game | 8.7 |
| 20.8% | Target share | — |
| 25.5% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 94 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 97 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Dallas Goedert at ADP 130, Jake Ferguson at ADP 137.7. On 2025 production it is 10.3 vs 8.7 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
Strong move if you believed…
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Dallas Goedert's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
25.5% last 3 vs 20.8% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor move if instead…
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Dallas Goedert's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
25.5% last 3 vs 20.8% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.