Sam Darnold: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Sam Darnold averaged 13.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a QB20 draft slot was worth, so the July 2026 price read roughly in line with the production. His snap share climbed +3.8pp across the 2025 season.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 148.2 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 154 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 13.8 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +3.0 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +3.8pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 84 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
Sam Darnold was drafted as the QB20 — ADP 148.2 — in July 2026. His 13.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the QB starter line.
- adp 148.2
- adp_rank 154
- search_rank 84
- ppg 13.8
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
Strong pick if you believed…
-
Sam Darnold's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+3.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Sam Darnold's snap share keeps climbing
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+3.8pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor pick if instead…
-
Sam Darnold's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+3.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Sam Darnold's snap climb was situational and flattens out
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+3.8pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Ask Chalk & Sharp about Sam Darnold for this week's lineup.
This page is the July 2026 draft-day read. The AI assistant weighs Sam Darnold against your scoring, your roster, and this week's matchup instead.
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