Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Tyler Warren or Tucker Kraft?
Tucker Kraft was the stronger 2025 producer — 12.6 vs 8.9 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 63.2 vs 76.5). That gap was the draft-day case for Tucker Kraft.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Tyler Warren | Metric | Tucker Kraft |
|---|---|---|
| 63.2 (TE4) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 76.5 (TE5) |
| 64 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 75 |
| 8.9 | Fantasy points / game | 12.6 |
| 21.5% | Target share | — |
| 22.2% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 57 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 63 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Tyler Warren at ADP 63.2, Tucker Kraft at ADP 76.5. On 2025 production it is 8.9 vs 12.6 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
Strong move if you believed…
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Tyler Warren's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
22.2% last 3 vs 21.5% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor move if instead…
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Tyler Warren's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
22.2% last 3 vs 21.5% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.