Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Matthew Stafford or Caleb Williams?
Matthew Stafford was the stronger 2025 producer — 20.6 vs 18.7 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 105.5 vs 109.9). That gap was the draft-day case for Matthew Stafford.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Matthew Stafford | Metric | Caleb Williams |
|---|---|---|
| 105.5 (QB13) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 109.9 (QB14) |
| 109 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 114 |
| 20.6 | Fantasy points / game | 18.7 |
| +7.5 | Points over expected (FPOE) | +4.6 |
| 103 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 15 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Matthew Stafford at ADP 105.5, Caleb Williams at ADP 109.9. On 2025 production it is 20.6 vs 18.7 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
Strong move if you believed…
-
Caleb Williams's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+4.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Matthew Stafford's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+7.5 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor move if instead…
-
Caleb Williams's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+4.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Matthew Stafford's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+7.5 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.