Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Marvin Harrison or Courtland Sutton?
Courtland Sutton was the stronger 2025 producer — 10.7 vs 8.9 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 66.4 vs 66.9). That gap was the draft-day case for Courtland Sutton.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Marvin Harrison | Metric | Courtland Sutton |
|---|---|---|
| 66.4 (WR33) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 66.9 (WR34) |
| 67 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 68 |
| 8.9 | Fantasy points / game | 10.7 |
| 18.1% | Target share | 21.1% |
| 10.7% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 20.6% |
| 77 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 72 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Marvin Harrison at ADP 66.4, Courtland Sutton at ADP 66.9. On 2025 production it is 8.9 vs 10.7 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
Strong move if you believed…
-
Courtland Sutton's target share is fading from the season baseline
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.6% last 3 vs 21.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Marvin Harrison's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
10.7% last 3 vs 18.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor move if instead…
-
Courtland Sutton's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.6% last 3 vs 21.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Marvin Harrison's target share is fading from the season baseline
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
10.7% last 3 vs 18.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.