Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts?
Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts are a near-tie on 2025 production (17.5 vs 18.8 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Jared Goff | Metric | Jalen Hurts |
|---|---|---|
| 91.9 (QB10) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 98.4 (QB11) |
| 95 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 104 |
| 17.5 | Fantasy points / game | 18.8 |
| +5.0 | Points over expected (FPOE) | +5.6 |
| +1.5pp | Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | — |
| 66 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 26 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Jared Goff at ADP 91.9, Jalen Hurts at ADP 98.4. On 2025 production it is 17.5 vs 18.8 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
Strong move if you believed…
-
Jared Goff's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+5.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Jalen Hurts's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+5.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Jared Goff's snap share keeps climbing
Checkpoint: snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+1.5pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor move if instead…
-
Jared Goff's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+5.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Jalen Hurts's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+5.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Jared Goff's snap climb was situational and flattens out
Checkpoint: snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+1.5pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.