Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy?
Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy are a near-tie on 2025 production (18.8 vs 19.7 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Jalen Hurts | Metric | Brock Purdy |
|---|---|---|
| 98.4 (QB11) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 101.1 (QB12) |
| 104 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 105 |
| 18.8 | Fantasy points / game | 19.7 |
| +5.6 | Points over expected (FPOE) | — |
| -8.0pp | Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | — |
| 26 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 37 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Jalen Hurts at ADP 98.4, Brock Purdy at ADP 101.1. On 2025 production it is 18.8 vs 19.7 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
Strong move if you believed…
-
Jalen Hurts's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+5.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Jalen Hurts's snap dip was game-script, not a demotion
Checkpoint: snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
-8.0pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor move if instead…
-
Jalen Hurts's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+5.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
-
Jalen Hurts's snap share is shrinking
Checkpoint: snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
-8.0pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.