Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
David Montgomery or Bhayshul Tuten?
David Montgomery was the stronger 2025 producer — 9.1 vs 5.6 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 53.8 vs 58.2). That gap was the draft-day case for David Montgomery.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| David Montgomery | Metric | Bhayshul Tuten |
|---|---|---|
| 53.8 (RB23) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 58.2 (RB24) |
| 54 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 59 |
| 9.1 | Fantasy points / game | 5.6 |
| 5.4% | Target share | — |
| 3.2% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 48 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 44 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — David Montgomery at ADP 53.8, Bhayshul Tuten at ADP 58.2. On 2025 production it is 9.1 vs 5.6 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
Strong move if you believed…
-
David Montgomery's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
3.2% last 3 vs 5.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor move if instead…
-
David Montgomery's target share is fading from the season baseline
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
3.2% last 3 vs 5.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.