Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Courtland Sutton or Parker Washington?
Courtland Sutton and Parker Washington are a near-tie on 2025 production (10.7 vs 9.7 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Courtland Sutton | Metric | Parker Washington |
|---|---|---|
| 66.9 (WR34) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 70.4 (WR35) |
| 68 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 72 |
| 10.7 | Fantasy points / game | 9.7 |
| -0.3 | Points over expected (FPOE) | — |
| 21.1% | Target share | — |
| 20.6% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 72 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 71 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Courtland Sutton at ADP 66.9, Parker Washington at ADP 70.4. On 2025 production it is 10.7 vs 9.7 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
Strong move if you believed…
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Courtland Sutton's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.6% last 3 vs 21.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
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Courtland Sutton's underperformance was bad luck — the usage converts going forward
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
-0.3 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor move if instead…
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Courtland Sutton's target share is fading from the season baseline
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.6% last 3 vs 21.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
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Courtland Sutton keeps leaving points on the field relative to his usage
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
-0.3 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.