Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford?
Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford are a near-tie on 2025 production (19.7 vs 20.6 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Brock Purdy | Metric | Matthew Stafford |
|---|---|---|
| 101.1 (QB12) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 105.5 (QB13) |
| 105 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 109 |
| 19.7 | Fantasy points / game | 20.6 |
| +6.8 | Points over expected (FPOE) | — |
| 37 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 103 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Brock Purdy at ADP 101.1, Matthew Stafford at ADP 105.5. On 2025 production it is 19.7 vs 20.6 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
Strong move if you believed…
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Brock Purdy's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+6.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Poor move if instead…
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Brock Purdy's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+6.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.